It seems like every other day something else is brought up about the mobile war: Android vs iOS. Since RIM's BlackBerry has started slipping in the US, everything has been about who is on top, who will be on top, and when. We know it's a tight race, thanks to a somewhat shady report (that omits two of Android's most popular devices), but as time goes on it only becomes a closer race.
As of this morning, we have an opinion from Chitika that says the little green robot will overtake the iPhone in market share by February 2012. They even pinpointed a specific day that they think the Google milestone will happen, February 16. At the rate they are growing and with so many options between carrier, manufacturer, and form factor, I have no doubt that little Andy can take over the current mobile giant. But I'm not so set on it taking them until 2012 to do so.
I'm sure Chitika's numbers factor in some new devices launching over the next year, but we don't really know what's coming or when. Is an iPhone 5 coming? I'm sure one will, but what will it be like? If the successor to the current iPhone and the rumored Verizon iPhone don't bring any major changes (faster processor, bigger display, etc.), some people may jump ship and go to something with a little more processing power. The iPhone hasn't really changed a lot over the past three years, save for some relatively minor OS updates and a hardware redesign that suffered from design flaws.
While the past two Android updates haven't exactly brought major changes to the platform, we do know one is headed down the pipe and is slated for a early 2011 release (not for public hands...yet). That in combination with ever-improving technology in the constant stream of new devices is sure to entice some users to go green. Also, if Apple runs into any more blunders like the antennagate issue or cases cracking the glass, they could potentially kiss their chance at a long reign goodbye. Then again, Apple users and fans are very faithful and it takes a lot to sway or discourage them.
Personally, I think Android can pull it off and probably a little before 2012. Look on the bright side though, if it does take them until February of 2012, at least they'll reign a little while before the end of the world.